Each season, Kat Gotsick undertakes the world’s dumbest statistical analysis in order to predict who the producers of “Dancing with the Stars” might cast. Based on that analysis, the producers choose all their contestants from 11 different categories in seven different tiers of priority. Check her predictions in other categories for this season: Elite Athletes / Pop Stars / Comedians & Goofballs / Reality Stars / Nostalgic Icons / Physically Challenged / People We Hate / Quirky C-Listers / Wild Cards / Disney Stars
Beautiful People are one of the most oft-represented categories on DWTS, having shown up in 11 of 15 seasons (not counting All Stars), just a tiny bit less than three quarters of all seasons. There have been 23 total Beautiful People on the show, representing 13 percent of all 175 contestants ever cast. Only Elite Athletes have had more total cast members (37 total, 100 percent of seasons) over time. Here’s the full list:
WHAT DOES THE DATA TELL US ABOUT BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE?
Beautiful People break down in some interesting and statistically significant ways.
Non-Soap Actors. The actors are generally either foreign or a little bit removed from their peak relevance.
Supermodels. Supermodels virtually always do TERRIBLY dancing-wise. I’m not sure why they keep casting them.
Soap Stars. Enough said.
Foreigners. Indeed, the foreigners have turned out to be some of the most talented dancers and most lovable to the DWTS (middle-aged soccer mom) demographic (Marini, de la Fuenta). Plus the domestics have generally been less funny, charming, interesting, or lovable than other contestants. They’re just preternaturally beautiful (Lucci, Anderson, Elizabeth). Even the good dancers–Monaco and Burke both won Mirrorballs–just haven’t been that compelling as personalities.
If I’m a DWTS producer, I want whatever foreigner is hot in pop culture but still speaks excellent English. I’m also looking for a domestic beautiful person who has anything close to a charming personality or can actually dance. I won’t choose a beautiful person who doesn’t have either of those two attributes unless they are either A-Listers (Richards comes closest) or have been involved in a scandal that caught the entire nation’s attention (ditto D-Rich).
WHICH BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE WILL APPEAR ON SEASON 17?
The Choices that Make the Most Sense Predictive Criteria Wise: Ashley Judd, Cindy Crawford, Goran Visnjic, Tom Welling
The White Whales: Kate Upton, Anyone from “Downton Abbey” (especially Lady Cora, Lady Mary, Sybil, or Eragon)
The Blue Whales: Liberty Ross, Jamie Bamber, Aishwarya Rai Bachchan (the celebrated Indian actress who was criticized last year for not losing her baby weight)
The Be-Careful-What-You-Wish-For Whales: Any Victoria’s Secret model. THEY CAN’T DANCE YO.
The Sterotypical Ready-for-Reality TV Choices: James Deen
The Courageous Choice I Bet They Wouldn’t Regret: Antonio Banderas and/or Melanie Griffith, James Franco[ref]Certainly DWTS is on his list, right? His weird list?[/ref]
The Plan B/Deep Cuts: The third Hemsworth brother. Isn’t he a star in Australia?