Check Kat Gotsick’s DWTS Power Rankings Defined column if you need help understanding these choices.  See also: Elite Athlete Predictions; Comedians & Goofballs PredictionsNostaglic Icon Predictions; Disney Stars Predictions; Wild Card Predictions; Pop Stars Predictions; Physically Challenged Predictions; Beautiful People Predictions; Quirky Delightful C-Lister Predictions; Pop Star Predictions

Here is a breakdown of all of the Reality Stars who have appeared on “Dancing with the Stars”:[ref]I included Kate Gosselin in this analysis even though her primary classification among all contestants is “Person we Hate”.[/ref]

Reality Stars table

First, I’ll call out a somewhat surprising LACK of pattern: While the 13 contestants come from a total of only four networks (MTV, ABC, E!, and TLC), there doesn’t seem to be an effort to close out the competition,[ref]MTV is owned by Viacom, E! is owned by NBCUniversal, and TLC is owned by Discovery[/ref] other than perhaps a lack of major non-cable network representation. There are no “Survivor” survivors, for instance. No “American Idol” idols or “Biggest Loser” winners (losers?).

But seriously, if Simon Cowell warmed up to DWTS, do you honestly think that they would pass on him because he’s too closely aligned with Fox? My bet is that if as low a peon as Randy Jackson came calling, ABC would find a way to get him on the dance floor. That doesn’t mean they won’t keep force feeding us Bachelor/ette alums (although it’s telling that the last Bachelor they put on there[ref]Pavelka[/ref] was the least likeable Bachelor EVER and they haven’t put any others on since).

REALITY STARS: PREDICTIVE CRITERIA

  • Less than a quarter (3 out of 13, 23%) of Reality Stars on DWTS were men. The vast majority have been women.
  • Virtually all of these contestants are on the young side[ref]The average age of any reality star when they were on DWTS is 27[/ref] and extremely attractive, seemingly sending a signal that sex appeal is a more important criteria for Reality Stars than entertainment value.[ref]Kelly Osbourne might be the exception to this rule, although she definitely used her DWTS experience to her favor beauty-wise. You go Girl![/ref]
  • Almost 40% of contestants have come from MTV shows, followed by 30% from E! Network shows (including two “Girls Next Doors”), 25% are Bachelor/ettes, and then there’s Gosselin.

WHAT REALITY STARS WILL APPEAR ON SEASON 16?

The Choices that Make the Most Sense Predictive Criteria Wise: Snooki[ref]Yes, she’s got a little stank still on her but she seems to have cleaned up her act post-Lorenzo. If her agent is smart, they’ll be looking to DWTS for further image rehab.[/ref] (but I bet you anything she can’t dance), any of the remaining Jenner/Kardashian clan (I wouldn’t count out a Kris / Bruce double bill), and Crystal Harris Hefner

The White Whale: NONE. (Emily Maynard would have been, but then she texted Matt Leinart)

The Be-Careful-What-You-Wish-For White Whale  NONE.  (Had Courtney Robinson remained engaged to Ben Flajnik and they had sincerely come to love one another, this might have been her. If Tierra LiCausi wasn’t so much more well suited to Bachelor Pad, this might have been her too. Both of these ladies, though, are eligible in our “People We Hate” Category.)

The Blue Whales: The current Bachelor, Sean Lowe. He has an creepy likeability to him. I like him. I really like him. I really like him. See? It’s creepy.

The Sterotypical Ready-for-Reality TV Choices: Please. Let’s move on.

The Courageous Choice I Bet They Wouldn’t Regret:  June Shannon, June Shannon, June Shannon.[ref]Honey Boo Boo’s mother[/ref] Please lord, let this happen.

The Deep Cuts: Ali Fedotowsky maybe? She seems to be the Bachelorette most in the Melissa Rycroft mold. I’m not sure there are any Plan Bs on my list. If I’m a producer, I’m thinking I would prefer a higher class clientele than Ali (and yes, I’m aware that I just prayed to the Lord to put June Shannon on the show).

I just changed my mind.  Arie Luyendyk Jr. He’s hot as balls and has a NASCAR connection?  He’s not a bad deep cut in a pretty thin pool.